Europe's Military Future: The Challenge of Rare Earths

In an era of resurgent global conflicts, European countries find themselves at a crossroads. Russia's growing assertiveness, coupled with the possibility of the United States adopting an isolationist stance, has prompted European governments to enhance their military capabilities. This sense of urgency has forced Europe to confront a formidable challenge: its heavy reliance on China for rare earth minerals.

China's dominance in the rare earth industry is staggering. The EU imports approximately 98% of its critical rare earths from China, a figure far higher than that of the United States, which relies on China for 80% of its imports. These minerals are crucial for manufacturing key components of drones, missiles, and other military hardware. Given this reality, Europe's military buildup is precariously dependent on a supply chain that is increasingly unreliable.

"Everything depends on this," said Joris Teer, a researcher at the EU Institute for Security Studies. He pointed out that without the supply of critical minerals, "there is no possibility of rearmament."

During trade conflicts, Beijing has adeptly used its control over rare earth exports as a strategic lever. In response to the trade policies of other countries, China has previously tightened or relaxed export controls. As tensions escalate, this has become a genuine concern for European leaders who must balance national security with diplomatic relations.

In response to these weaknesses, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has passionately advocated for Europe's independence in critical minerals. "We must strive for independence in critical minerals," she emphasized. However, while diplomatic channels are in progress, the reality of the urgent need for supplies demands attention.

European trade officials have begun discussions with their Chinese counterparts, hoping to obtain general permission to facilitate the export of rare earths to Europe. However, optimistic predictions are accompanied by warnings. Diversification efforts require time, investment and the development of infrastructure, all of which are lacking in Europe amid the current military urgency.

Analysts predict that given the complexity involved in establishing new supply chains, developing mines and strengthening manufacturing processes, it could take China 8 to 12 years to achieve full diversification. The threat of geopolitical instability looms large, and time is of the essence.

As the world witnesses a new era of geopolitical transformation, the impact of China's dominance in rare earths has extended beyond Europe. Benedetta Girardelli, an analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, points out that the consequences could affect the security of the United States and Europe, highlighting the interconnection of the global landscape.