Today's early trading session saw Rare Metal ETFs surge over 3%, while rare earth concept stocks had fallen over 3% just yesterday. News of China's delayed rare earth export controls caused pre-market drops in US rare earth stocks.
In October, Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced they would raise rare earth concentrate transaction prices by over 37%. From the low in Q4 2024, rare earth concentrate prices have accumulated an increase exceeding 56%.
Behind this wave of price hikes is the urgent demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials from humanoid robots, new energy vehicles, and the wind power industry. A single Tesla Optimus robot alone requires 2000 to 4000 grams of NdFeB material.
01 Today's Dynamics
In today's market, news of China's delayed rare earth export controls triggered a chain reaction.
China's decision to postpone rare earth export controls immediately resonated in global markets. US rare earth stocks experienced significant declines in pre-market trading.
In contrast to this news, domestic market enthusiasm for rare metals continues. Rare metal-related ETFs gained over 3% in early trading, leading the entire industry-themed ETF market.
02 The "Industrial Vitamin" Status of Rare Earths
Rare earths are not soil but a collective term for a group of metallic elements. They are called "industrial vitamins" because, although used in small amounts, they are indispensable to modern industry.
Rare earth permanent magnet materials are core components of servo motors, enabling efficient joint driving and precise environmental perception in humanoid robots. A single Tesla Optimus robot requires over 40 servo motors.
In the new energy vehicle sector, NdFeB permanent magnets are key materials for drive motors; in the wind power industry, large turbines rely on high-performance permanent magnet materials. These applications are driving sustained growth in rare earth demand.
03 The Price Surge, Let the Data Speak
Rare earth prices are undergoing a strong upward cycle, with several key data points revealing the intensity of this trend:
Rare Earth Concentrate Price: For the specification REO (Rare Earth Oxide content) = 50%, the latest quoted price reached 26,205 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 37.13% compared to Q3 2025.
Long-term Increase: From the low in Q4 2024, rare earth concentrate prices have accumulated an increase of over 56%.
Praseodymium Neodymium Oxide Price: Since the beginning of 2025, it has risen nearly 14%.
Earnings Growth: Northern Rare Earth expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 900 million to 960 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71%.
04 Analysis of Today's Stock Market Fluctuations
The divergence seen in today's stock market reflects differentiated market expectations for different segments of the rare earth industry.
Following China's announcement of the postponed rare earth export controls, US rare earth stocks fell in response. This indicates the global market remains highly sensitive to China's rare earth supply policies.
Meanwhile, rare metal ETFs in the A-share market showed strong performance, rising over 3% in early trading. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon actually reflects market recognition of the long-term value of the rare earth industry.
05 Demand Explosion, Humanoid Robots Become a New Engine
The growth in rare earth demand no longer relies solely on traditional sectors; emerging industries like humanoid robots are becoming new growth engines.
Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus pilot production line has been established in California. According to Zhongtai Securities analysis, its production could reach 50,000 to 100,000 units by 2026.
Calculating based on 2000 to 4000 grams of NdFeB used per humanoid robot, if the long-term global humanoid robot population reaches 100 million units, the demand for magnetic materials would reach 200,000 to 400,000 tons, equivalent to creating an entirely new rare earth permanent magnet market.
06 Supply Tightness, China Dominates the Global Industrial Chain
China's dominant position in the rare earth supply chain is key to understanding the current market structure.
China's shares of global supply for rare earth mines, rare earth oxides, and rare earth metals are 68%, 88%, and 92% respectively, essentially holding an absolute dominant position in the global rare earth mine-oxide-metal chain.
Simultaneously, the slowdown in domestic rare earth quota growth has become the main theme, while supply from Myanmar, an important source country for domestic rare earth ores, remains disrupted, further reinforcing supply rigidity.
Price performance of some metal varieties after China implemented export controls:
Antimony: Export controls implemented in September 2024; showed simultaneous domestic and international price increases in March-April 2025, with both domestic and international antimony prices hitting record highs.
Terbium Oxide (FOB price): From early April to mid-May 2025, rose from $906/kg to $1005/kg, an 11% increase.
Dysprosium price (European market): From early April to May 1, 2025, doubled, reaching $850/kg.
Terbium price (European market): During the same period, rose from $965/kg to $3000/kg, a cumulative increase exceeding 210%.
07 Institutional Views: Possibility of Future Increases
Several authoritative institutions hold an optimistic attitude towards the future trend of rare earth prices.
Huatai Securities research report stated: Value the strategic position of rare earths,看好(be optimistic about) price increases, expecting the rare earth price center to potentially continue rising in 2025-2026.
Guotai Haitong believes: Domestic rare earth prices are at the bottom of a major cycle, and the future price center is expected to continue rising. This judgment is based on dual support from supply rigidity and demand growth.
Zhongyou Securities research report indicates: Supply-demand imbalance catalyzes a small metal bull market, rare earth prices are expected to continue rising. Light rare earths show a state of marginal supply-demand improvement, coupled with远期(long-term) humanoid robot demand driving, breaking through previous highs is within expectation.
08 Investment Considerations and Risk Warnings
When considering rare earth investment opportunities, it's necessary to fully understand their potential and risks. Changes in the supply-demand structure and policy direction are two core factors affecting the rare earth market.
From an investment perspective, Guojin Securities recommends focusing on resource-end companies like China Rare Earth, Guangdong Rising Assets, Northern Rare Earth, and magnet material-end companies like JL Mag. Guotai Haitong believes that as the rare earth price center rises, rare earth magnet material enterprises are expected to迎来(usher in) a double boost in performance and valuation.
Risks to be vigilant about include: overseas rare earth supply exceeding expectations, downstream demand falling short of expectations, and element substitution risks.
Northern Rare Earth holds an optimistic view on the future trend of rare earth prices. This industry leader's judgment is based on one reality: overall spot market supply is tight.
On the global rare earth industrial chain, multiple supply-side variables are tightening—from reduced import volumes due to Myanmar's rainy season to stagnant imports of US ore. On the demand side, emerging fields like robotics, low-altitude economy, and industrial motors are expected to open up long-term demand growth space.
When China holds 92% of the global supply of rare earth metals, any policy adjustment will create waves in the global market. The drop in US rare earth stocks and the rise in domestic rare metal ETFs today are merely two ripples in these waves.
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